Denver Wins; Pundits Mystified

[kevin_standlee]

There's a interesting insider take on the Worldcon Site Selection results (Denver won by a nose) in Tom Veal's Stromata Blog.

Comments

[gridlore.livejournal.com]

How did Casa de Worldcon do?

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

I don't have the details yet, and won't until the Business Meeting (which starts in an hour). I heard they drew in the neighborhood of 50 votes, which is excellent for a hoax bid, but seemed to surprise people who were convinced that Hollister was going to sweep the ballot. That's silly, of course, because most Americans don't really understand how the Instant Runoff Ballot works, so even people who were entertained by the Hollister bid probably were worried that they might swing the election against their preferred bid. The Hollister bid did an excellent job explaining itself to people at their party, and it's a credit to them -- they also got Party of the Night honors for their Thursday shindig -- and the double-digit vote count is a reflection of that.

Anyone who things a non-serious write-in bid has a significant chance of garnering a highly significant number of votes doesn't really understand fannish site selection politics and has fallen prey to the fannish fallacy of "anything that can possibly happen must happen, no matter how unlikely it is."

[redneckotaku.livejournal.com]

This pundit wasn't mystified. I thought, if Denver put on a good show, they would win. Read my blog earlier this week and I said the odds on favorite was Denver. I could consider myself one of the swing votes that got Denver the Worldcon. I chose Chicago fourth because it was in a hotel and even with 200,000 square feet of space I didn't believe it was big enough to host a 5,000-6,000 square person Worldcon. If Chicago had decided to go with the Rosemont Convention Center, Chicago would have been second.

[shsilver.livejournal.com]

Of course, Chicago has hosted a 5,000+ person worldcon in that very same facility.

[avt-tor.livejournal.com]

Two Worldcons, wasn't it? :)

[yourbob.livejournal.com]

79 votes for Hollister! Woo hoo!!

Low turnout

[ceemage.livejournal.com]

The Stromata blog mentions the low turnout as a potential factor. Actually, in terms of percentage of the eligible electorate, the turnout is even worse than it first appears. Since all Intersection members were eligible to vote as well - in very rough terms, say 5000 LACon members, 4000 Intersection members, minus say 2000 overlap, gives a theoretical electorate of 7000. 1332 votes on the final count is about a 19% turnout. (This, of course, doesn't count votes for Columbus or Hollister that went non-transferable, but even so.)

Doh!

[ceemage.livejournal.com]

Interaction, not Intersection. Not the first to make that mistake, of course.

Re: Low turnout

[paradoox.livejournal.com]

I'd be very interesting to see how many Interthingy II only members voted. I would expect the number to be very very small.

Re: Low turnout

[ceemage.livejournal.com]

Agreed, but with such a tight result they could have made a difference. Not that we'll ever know (rightly).

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

I'm quite surprised myself. Well... it's an opportunity for us in Denver Fandom. And to meet you in the flesh, I expect.