Worldcon Site Selection Politics

[kevin_standlee]

I am concerned about rumblings over the current Worldcon site selection election. Specifically, I've heard people say that if Kansas City doesn't win, it proves that the relatively new "no-zone" site selection system is broken and needs changing. For heaven's sake, it's only been in full operation for the last three election cycles (the previous three years were a transition period). It takes a lot longer than that to figure out whether a system is working or not. We did three-year lead time for almost twenty years before going back to two years.

The same complaints inform me that the center of the continent will be completely frozen out under "no-zone," and that Denver certainly isn't "Central" (although it looks that way from here in California), but neither is Chicago! That is, Denver is "West" and Chicago is "East." And when I asked about Texas, they told me that it's "South." That means "Central" consists of a pretty small area: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Oh, and possibly western Illinois and Wisconsin, but not Chicago and not Milwaukee.

Some have pointed to the lack of a Minneapolis Worldcon as further evidence of bias against the center. Minneapolis, for instance, is the fourth largest metropolitan area in the US & Canada to not yet host a Worldcon. But like the old joke about Murray and God, you have to buy a lottery ticket in order to win the lottery, and aside from Minneapolis in '73, there are have been no serious bids from Minneapolis. (Which is a shame, really, because it's a nice city with a good looking convention center and relatively close downtown hotels.)

Frankly, I expect "no-zone" will lead to slightly fewer Worldcons in what was the old Central zone (which did include Chicago and Texas; sorry about that, folks), because Worldcons are now more likely to follow general population demographics, and the edges of the continent have more people living there than the center. But accusations that the con will bounce back and forth between Boston and Anaheim are just silly.

Edit, 11:35: Fixed geographic typo pointed out in comments.

Comments

[fla-sunshine.livejournal.com]

Maybe if Kansas City would just get out an BID, they would give the lie to these complaints. The race was clearly theirs to lose after their great performance against LA last time, but they have been missing some critical conventions in the last couple of years, and I heard the KC smofcon did not go over well for them. They are nice folks and I still support them, but I'm seriously thinking now about how much fun a Montreal worldcon could be despite my dismay about the previous Canadian Worldcon.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

They are out there bidding, but appear to be concentrating their resources locally: They apparently took in a lot of support and ballots at the Heinlein Centennial last weekend, and they of course have the NASFiC in their back yard in a few weeks. Could it be that they expect that this is sufficient? After all, tactically you can't expect many votes to be cast by the Japanese. I expect there to be fewer than 1,000 votes cast in the election. And we know from last year how important every ballot is apt to be.

(I also remember the election in 1990 in The Hague, when San Francisco's bid got its majority by only one vote. It probably would have won on the next round after redistribution of ballots from fourth-place Phoenix, but it still seemed close.)

I agree with your assessment of the election being theirs to lose. Their showing last December at SMOFCon reinforces my advice to would-be Worldcon runners to not try hosting a SMOFCon during their campaign.

[fla-sunshine.livejournal.com]

Okay, if they can pulling significant BALLOTS out of their local area (and I had completely forgotten about the Heinlein Centenial), they might still have a winning strategy, but they are in significant danger of losing voters that were predisposed favorably to them by their no-shows at Westercons and at this year's Midwestcon (and for reasons obvious to you at Westercon, we have been mostly out of the convention circuit ourselves since November).

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

They've never been at Westercon, have they? It wouldn't be difficult to decide that Westercon is a marginal convention of little political importance. As important as it is to me, I can see that its national and international importance has dropped significantly as the convention has shrunk. (OTOH, Montreal made much better results at Westercon than at BayCon, which was five weeks earlier, in the same hotel, under substantially the same management, and had three times as many attendees.)

Mind you, the only reason Montreal had a presence at Westercon was due to having an Emergency Holographic Canadian module stored in the Bay Area. (Montreal's bid has to preserve resources for NASFiC and Worldcon themselves.) And Lisa enjoyed throwing a party for them. We just wish we could have figured out a way to actually do poutine without having to pay to replace the carpet afterwards.

[paradoox.livejournal.com]

Gee, I thought Westercon was the Summer Smofcon!

Summer SMOFCon?

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it seems that way sometimes, partially because there are so many Usual Suspects there in a relatively small convention, so it's easier to find them. But I'm unsure this theory holds up under closer scrutiny. There are too many "holes" in the sense of important SMOFS who don't see sufficient value in flying cross-country that weekend.

[smofbabe.livejournal.com]

It wouldn't be difficult to decide that Westercon is a marginal convention of little political importance.

Keep in mind also that the last worldcon was in LA so bids could also easily decide that they had already "covered" the likely West Coast voters . . .

Speaking of site selection politics, I heard a rumor that Montreal is bidding a single hotel without enough coverage for a worldcon and does not have agreements with others. Do you happen to know whether this is true or just a rumor?

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

The way it was explained to me was that when it came time to file, they included such commitments as they had at that time while continuing to negotiate with other facilities. They are in negotiation with other hotels, but I don't know which other ones with which they've signed right now. For that, I'd have to say you'll get more accurate results by asking them directly.

[smofbabe.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the clarification!

[shsilver.livejournal.com]

Oh, and possibly eastern Illinois and Wisconsin, but not Chicago and not Milwaukee.

You realize, of course, that both Chicago and Milwaukee are in eastern Illinois and Wisconsin respectively.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

*headsmack* Whoops. Fixed; obviously I meant "western" not "eastern."

[shsilver.livejournal.com]

I'd also argue about Milwaukee and Chicago being Eastern, but then, I'd also argue about Denver being Western.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

So would I, but neither of us live in that "rump Central" zone.

Tangentially, I had an exchange here recently with someone who thought Westercon should be restricted to those states and provinces with Pacific coasts, and who thought it was Wrong for it to be in Las Vegas or Phoenix, because they aren't "West" enough for her. It's all a matter of perspective, I guess.

[dd-b.livejournal.com]

Denver is definitely western, as viewed from Minnesota. Chicago is definitely not eastern. Ohio is eastern.

[nitroace.livejournal.com]

From someone who has only lived on both coasts (New York/LA), if you not near the Pacific or the Atlantic, your in that "central" part of the country.

[bovil.livejournal.com]

as I said to sfrose, if it's flat, it's "central." If it's foothills on either side of all that flat, it's the beginnings of "eastern" or "western."

[sethb.livejournal.com]

Speaking about as definitively for Minneapolis fandom as anyone can (i.e. not at all), I'll point out that all Minneapolis needs is about a dozen Worldcon-running-level fans, of which we have approximately me.

The facilities are fairly great (indoor connections to more hotel rooms than anybody else, mostly about 2 blocks away from the Convention Center). It's the people to run it that are lacking.

And if God wanted me to win the lottery, I'd find a ticket.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

That's what I figured. As you know, though, Worldcons have been done with fewer local Worldcon-running fans. A certain city due north of you comes to mind.

It seems to me that a Minneapolis Worldcon would be in the same position as Winnipeg or Glasgow (to name a couple); nearly the entire organization would have to be imported. Worse, if I understand it correctly, a Minneapolis Worldcon would face the active opposition of the local fan community, which wouldn't be much fun. It's one thing if the local fans are either nonexistent or indifferent; actively in opposition would be a Bad Thing.

[redneckotaku.livejournal.com]

Kansas City and Montreal were both at Balticon. Maybe, KC is thinking to work the east and midwestern vote more than the western vote. I don't think the end of rotational bidding is such a bad thing. It encourages more competitive races. We had a three way race last year and a two horse race for 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if someone steps up for 2011 to challenge Seattle and 2012 for Chicago.

It could be worst for Minneapolis. We should be in New York City every 10-15 years. It is the book publishing and media capital of the world. New York is gaining fannish power with New York Comic Con, Book Expo America and the New York Anime Festival. Worldcon haven't been to NYC in almost 40 years. I am also aware of the weaknesses of NYC because of seeing $500 a night rooms for NY Anime Festival.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

New York City is a toxic cocktail of absurdly expensive facilities (both convention center and hotel rooms) and fannish politics (New York fandom can't pull together and form a single bid). I'd be surprised if we ever go back there.

Actually, Worldcon isn't really a good fit for first-tier cities. We're too cheap. We're better off going to second-tier cities that built convention centers and need to fill them, and will therefore offer good deals. However, Worldcons who get those good deals need to show them reflected in their membership rates, rather than simply charging what their recent predecessors charged.

If the members can expect to pay about the same whether the convention is in First Class City or Podunktown, expect them to pick the city where they can have the better time if the convention goes all pear-shaped. (Call this the "Nolacon Factor," and it was probably a contributor to San Francisco winning the 1993 Worldcon, as the organizational disaster of the 1988 Worldcon was still fresh on people's minds.

[tkunsman.livejournal.com]

I agree. I highly doubt that New York will ever see a Worldcon again-mostly because of the absurdly expensive facilities.

If KC does not win this election, will I think the system is broke? Probably not. The fans spoke, and picked the city based on (hopefully) the individual bids strengths and weaknesses.

[mrshirt.livejournal.com]

From my observations at cons up and down the east coast, all the KC bid parties have been run by one fan. And he is not even from KC but the Philadelphia area. I have not seen anyone that lives in the KC area this year at the 5 cons I have attended so far this year on the east coast.

[sfrose.livejournal.com]

Adam is a really nice guy, but the parties he threw at Balticon and Lunacon were not what I would call good bid parties, especially in the last six months before the vote. Memorial Day is always hard, with the added challenge of KC hosting the local convention, but that doesn't explain why they missed Midwestcon and Westercon and didn't ask (AFAIK) for help.

[dd-b.livejournal.com]

There'd certainly be some opposition. On the other hand, as the concept of carpet-bagged conventions becomes more well-known, the dangers of having a local worldcon become less. The people who count will understand that it flopped because of the committee, rather than because of the local fan community; or are more likely to. (Ditto for succeeded, but the possibility of being blamed for a failure we had nothing to do with is one of the reasons I've heard many people express for opposing a local bid they didn't like and didn't want to be involved in.)

I can't help noticing that gerisullivan felt it safer to flee the state not too long after Seth moved here :-). Possibly the worldcon-runners level was getting too high?

(While I was an area head for N3, I agree that I'm not a "worldcon-running fan" in any reasonable sense. Haven't been in *any* significant concom position recently, and I'm rather enjoying it.)

[sethb.livejournal.com]

I suspect it could be done without too much local opposition, if presented correctly ("You don't have to work on it.")

The fact that Minicon split into three different conventions (sort of) might make that easier: from what I've seen, there isn't so much opposition as indifference.

[avt-tor.livejournal.com]

All most cities need is a dozen Worldcon-running-level fans.

That is exactly the argument I made in 2004 when I tried to talk the Montrealers to withdraw their bid. But what they said was that they didn't need a local fan community to run a Worldcon. I feel that 2009, between Nippon and probably Australia, is the wrong year to try to have a non-US Worldcon in a city that is expensive to stay in and expensive to fly to, and I don't think Canadian fandom is ready to work on another Worldcon, which is why Canadian fandom is not strongly represented on the Montreal bid. Montreal in particular can barely organize a local convention for 300 members (which was cancelled in 2005 for lack of interest).

Usually people ignore my opinions until after the facts become obvious, and then people say "oh that's what he was talking about."

But like people say about government, fandom gets the Worldcons it deserves.

Kansas City runs a great local SF convention run by an active local fan community, and several other events. It's inexpensive to get to. Kansas City is also not just Kansas City; it draws in folks from across the central Midwest and upper South. That is a function of how connected their group is, not geography; St. Louis fandom, for example, doesn't have those connections.

I extremely doubt that the NASFiC is going to make much difference. The Archon crew has pretty much ignored marketing to travelling fandom, who are a key segment of Worldcon voters.

[solarbird]

Chicago... isn't... central?

BWAH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HELLO MIDWEST YOUR COWS ARE CALLING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON LINE THREE, YOU ARE CENTRAL, PLS TO GET OVER IT NAO

Incidentally, I have observed, in my extremely limited experience, a noticeably smaller SMOF attendance at northern Westercons than LA Westercons. (I would say southern, but my only direct experience is with LA. OTOH, I am told that El Paso, for all its problems, was a SMOFfest. And so on.)

[sfrose.livejournal.com]

I guess I'm not sure how KC losing proves that the no-zone system is broken.

I do know that the bid was theirs to lose (as long as they made an effort) and there hasn't been much visible activity since SMOFcon.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

The reasoning runs that bids from the "real" Central zone (which substantially would consist of Kansas City, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Winnipeg, I think) are always at a disadvantage to any bid from the East or West (and Montreal is certainly East).

It's a sort of a new version of the "wimpy zone" theory. The fact that they don't consider Chicago to be Central isn't even relevant here, because they'd probably say, "Even if Chicago is Central, it lost last year anyway." My counter-argument was that the election was so close last year that some sort of institutional bias can't be considered relevant -- on that narrow a margin, it's almost a coin flip.

[sfrose.livejournal.com]

I would consider Chicago more Central than Winnipeg, but that might be my USA East-coast bias showing. (i.e. if the Sout can separate themselves off from the rest of the Central Zone, than Canada should also...)

In fact, if you don't count Chicago, Toronto or San Antonia, except for Winnepeg, there hasn't been a "Central" Zone Worldcon since 1976. If anything, I would think that proves to those who say that no-zone is broken that the old system was even worse...

Though it almost sounds like those people would like a "Target-zone" system. A central circle in one zone, the East, South, West, and North (Canada) in another and rest of the world at any time...

[bovil.livejournal.com]

When I was living in Milwaukee, I decided that the eastern edge of "central" was Michigan and Indiana, and the western edge of "central" was the Dakotas and Nebraska. If it's still relatively flat, it's "central." If it's in the foothills on either side, it's the beginning of "eastern" or "western."

I don't count Toronto as "central" (as I don't count Ohio either) but I definitely count Chicago and San Antonio.

[mwillmoth.livejournal.com]

Sorry, but Minneapolis is way too cold and way too green for us desert rats. I don't even have a coat thick enough to keep me warm there in August/September... :-)

<== Mike ==>
[native Phoenician Arizonan]