The Ongoing Death of Worldcon

[kevin_standlee]

As I continue to dig out from the backlog of messages of the past month, my blood pressure went up again when I read yet another person falsely claiming that Worldcon attendance is steadily dropping. This isn't really true if you can see past all of the statistical noise in the results.

Maybe some people thought that holding the Worldcon in Japan would result in tens of thousands of people showing up? There were around 3,000 bodies on site, of which somewhat under 1,000 were gaijin like me. To me, that is really quite good, considering that there has never been a Worldcon there.

I am one of a relatively small number of people who have been studying Worldcon attendance figures over time. One thing I've concluded is that it's very dangerous to try and draw conclusions from small data sets. No one year will tell you anything meaningful. There's too much variability in the data. Worldcons are sometimes held in places that are relatively inaccessible like Australia, or that have relatively poor air connections to the rest of North America, like Winnipeg. Sometimes they are held in areas with very large "day tripper" locations, like Southern California, the Bay Area, and Boston. So don't look at any given year and say, "We're doomed!"

Another thing to consider: You can't really compare a traveling convention like Worldcon to stationary, professionally or semi-professionally run ones like ComicCon or DragonCon. The very structure of Worldcon, which is a gigantic annual one-shot convention run completely by amateurs with no permanent staff and no ability to build up local goodwill, means that the current size of the event (roughly 5500 +/- 1500 in North American and Europe, lower elsewhere) is probably the limit to growth. To get significantly larger, we'd have to fundamentally alter the convention's management structure.

I continue to wonder why people who I think should know better keep predicting the imminent death of fandom.

Comments

[debgeisler.livejournal.com]

I continue to wonder why people who I think should know better keep predicting the imminent death of fandom.

Because saying, "Oh, Chicken Little! The sky is falling!" is satisfying? Or just because the convention may no longer be meeting their needs, so it will die any second?

I've been seeing the same predictions since the early 90s. And yet, N4 had the fourth (or fifth -- haven't seen L.A.'s 2006 numbers yet) largest total membership of any Worldcon.

Attendance is a matter of location (location, location), interest, publicity, and excitement. When the numbers run very low, there are usually quite good reasons for that.

[johnnyeponymous.livejournal.com]

I think it's fair to say that WorldCon attendance is holding steady following a period of drop (and not too serious a drop either). We're not going to see another period where we have 5 WorldCons in ten years draw more than 5500 attendees (the 1980s, though the 90s did have 4 do the same number and since 2000 at least 2 and likely 3 have) And that's indicative of a lessening of numbers, but there is the fact that I think WorldCon is much more WORLD these days and that will lead to fewer attendees since Americans still make up a large number that would be interested in attending a WorldCon. The 80s had Two WorldCons out of the US (one each in England and Australia) and the 1990s had 4 (THe Hauge, Winnipeg, England and Australia) and the Oughts have had three already (England, Japan and Toronto) and another coming (Montreal). Add to that economic concerns and terrorism and yada-yada-yada and you've got a lower overall attendance and a higher international participation.
CHris

[feorag.livejournal.com]

I don't remember any Worldcons in England in either the 90s or this decade. I think the last English Worldcon was Brighton in the 1980s.

[johnnyeponymous.livejournal.com]

I always do that. Scotland looks a lot like England from the West Coast.
Chris

[cangetmad.livejournal.com]

The West Coast of what?

[johnnyeponymous.livejournal.com]

And so that I should be taught the difference first hand and experiencially, Y'all should vote Chris for TAFF!
Chris

[fr-john.livejournal.com]

Couldn't we just have a Scotsman (or woman) come and 'splain things to you?

[howeird]

Send him Nessie.
;-)

[fr-john.livejournal.com]

I was thinking more along the lines of a big hairy guy in a kilt...

[bovil.livejournal.com]

for that all he needs is a mirror and a kilt...

[fr-john.livejournal.com]

True...

[querldox.livejournal.com]

Assuming Australia wins 2010 next year;

1) Exactly half of the 2001-2010 decade of Worldcons will have been outside of the US (Toronto, Glasgow, Yokohama, Montreal, Melbourne)

2) As of 2010, four of the last six Worldcons will have been outside the US.

3) Denver is the only US-based Worldcon in a four year period.

I suspect the last two points will lead to a lower average Worldcon attendance over the latter part of this decade, and may lead to a lower average afterwards if it causes the more casual set of attendees not to go for several years running and fall out of the habit.

[dsmoen.livejournal.com]

Anaheim isn't in the US?

Or do you mean 2007-2010?

[querldox.livejournal.com]

For point 2): 2005: Glasgow, 2006: Anaheim, 2007: Yokohama, 2008: Denver, 2009: Montreal, 2010: Melbourne, four of six outside the US.

For point 3): 2007: Yokohama, 2008: Denver, 2009: Montreal, 2010: Melbourne for Denver being the one in four year period US-based Worldcon. As stated at the top, this was assuming Austalia wins its currently unopposed bid for 2010.

[dsmoen.livejournal.com]

Okay, I misread what you intended for point 3 at first.

I blame the need for a root canal.

[howeird]

There are so many variables, and most of them would predict lower than average attendance for a Japan Worldcon. Accessibility, cost of travel, cost of hotel/food, smaller English-reading sci-fi fan base, and so on.

I would only be worried if the lower attendance makes Worldon unsustainable. I'm thinking about community theater, for example, where we used the proceeds from this year's musical to fund the royalties & costume costs for next year.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

And that's not really a factor for Worldcons because each Worldcon is a completely stand-alone entity, with no direct legal or financial connection to its successors. Now, most Worldcons, if they have a surplus, are committed to donating a portion of that surplus to their successors, but the successor Worldcons can't count on it, and have to assume that they are starting from zero every year. That's one of the reasons the events are so expensive. If it were a truly ongoing event that could build up a financial reserve, we probably could drop the cost.

[fr-john.livejournal.com]

I've often wondered about this myself. There just seem to be some people who enjoy predicting doom. In the case of Worldcon, it seems somewhat connected to one's first Worldcon experience, whenever that was. Everything since compares unfavorably and thus the Worldcon is dying. But I like the fact that Worldcons aren't replays of each other. Each one has been a unique experience.

I'm safe then

[paradoox.livejournal.com]

My first Worldcon was Constellation (1983) and my second was New Orleans (1988). I think that means I'm safe from having too high expectations. Actually from the attendee point of view Constellation was a wonderful Worldcon. And New Orleans was useful for teaching skills in dealing with obnoxious panhandlers, some of them from local civic / charitable groups.

[redneckotaku.livejournal.com]

I was thinking it was going to be 3,000 at most (including dayers and supporting members) for Japan. I think the 4,700 (including supporters) is pretty good for a first time con outside Japan. I think it will help the Aussie's in 2010 because there will be another country that is interested in Worldcon in Asia.

I think the concern I have is that we try to reach out to younger fen. I mean the 18-30 year old fans like me. They are the future Worldcon runners and can be the most passionate supporters for a Worldcon. It is one of the reasons why I have put my name in the Volunteer Database for 2008 even though nobody has invited me to be part of something, yet. I don't think Worldcon should be Dragon Con, Anime Expo or Comic con. I think we should market ourselves to those audiences. A smaller con can be as much fun, if not more than a megacon.

[yourbob.livejournal.com]

Most people don't understand statistics. Not even instance-to-instance plotting.